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I have been approached by people in recent weeks on an increasingly frequent basis to “talk them down from the ledge”. They unwisely pay attention to what the alphabet-soup television networks say about the likely outcome of the 2012 presidential election, and fail to take that information with the ginormous grain of salt that ought to be applied. With rare exceptions, the media are almost universally liberal, and they want President Obama to be re-elected. It stands to reason that if the president were performing poorly in the polls, voters would lose faith in him and abandon him. And conversely, if the president is performing poorly in the polls, it’s likely that his opponent Mitt Romney is performing well, and the liberals can’t have that either. So they deliberately use twisted, contorted, impossible ground rules when they conduct polls in order to show the president ahead, despite the fact that he really is not.
Some pollsters are honest and straightforward, however, and the results they publish will give you the true picture of reality. Scott Rasmussen is one of these, and the Gallup organization generally shoots straight as well – they have a long-term reputation to protect, so they can’t afford to look like they have an axe to grind. Now invariably, each candidate enjoys a so-called “bounce” at the end of their respective national convention, and this year was no exception. Mitt Romney’s bounce was reportedly weak this time, and the president’s was reported to be 4-5 points. But these bounces also tend to dwindle over time, and the president’s bounce is now officially over. Gallup reports that he’s now floated back down to earth with only a +1 advantage. Rasmussen reports that in the broad national poll, Romney has actually pulled ahead by one, but more importantly, he is ahead by one across the board in all the swing states. These are the states that will ultimately decide the election, and as of right now, it appears the president cannot carry most of them. If he doesn’t, he is vulnerable to being beaten by a Ham Sandwich.
Turn Out The Lights - The Bounce Is Over . . .