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Today’s Ham Sandwich Update starts with a look at the new Washington Post/ABC News poll that was published Monday. It shows Obama over Romney 49/48, and you might say, “Well gosh – how can that be good news? Romney’s down!” Well, not to worry – the D/R/I model was 33/27/36. In the midterms of 2010, the actual voting breakdown was 35/35/30, and even in 2008, when Democrat enthusiasm was at a fever pitch, the breakdown was 39/32/29. So unless the Democrats suddenly and inexplicably overwhelm the well-established Republican enthusiasm advantage, and Republicans suddenly lose 5 points of that advantage, and independents spontaneously manage to expand their numbers to over a third of the American electorate, this D+6 poll is laughably skewed, and we’re right back where we started before either party convention. Romney is, in fact, ahead of Obama by anywhere from 3-5 points, but skewed partisan weighting models are being employed by Obama’s supporters to conceal that fact.
The conventional wisdom going into the conventions was that whomever emerged from them with a measurable lead would have an advantage for the rest of the election cycle, and the other guy would be playing catch-up. This is why there have been such long faces among the GOP for the past couple of days – it appeared that Obama had a 4-5 point lead. But now it’s clear that neither team moved the needle with their convention. Now we know we’re going to see a pitched battle – trench warfare for every little point – and the debates suddenly take on a lot more meaning. And since Obama put so much weight on his foreign policy cred during the DNC, the murder of the US ambassador to Libya completely changes the electoral calculus. Turns out that supporting the Arab Spring uprisings has earned the US nothing but more violence and death – so we see that the Obama administration is an epic failure in both domestic and foreign policy. Couple that with the new life that the WaPo/ABC poll has breathed into our collective hopes, and at least while we lament the tragic death of our emissary and our economy, we can face the future with our chins up, knowing that Americans will base their votes upon these failures, and this makes the president vulnerable to being beaten by a Ham Sandwich.
Back To Normal . . .