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We all know that Republicans, conservatives, libertarians, and all the other various and sundry right-of-center, small-government types with the Gadsden Flag sticker in the rear window of their pickup or SUV are not going to vote for President Obama. And Obama’s approval rating among independents barely clears 40% - a polling metric for which the election threshold is 50%. So there you have two out of three major groups in the US who will not be voting for the president’s re-election in November. So what about the third group – those left-of-center, big-government types with the “Coexist” and Sierra Club stickers in the rear window of their Subaru Outback or Toyota Prius? The old conventional wisdom is that these folks could be relied upon to pull the handle for a Democrat candidate every single time. That may not be the case in 2012.
First, the president is 10 percent (actually 14 points) off his 2008 pace with Jewish voters. True that Jews comprise less than 2 percent of the population, but this is a symptom. And indeed, we see that Catholics are not happy with the president this time around either – with 43 major Catholic institutions filing lawsuits to prevent Obamacare from forcing them to fund contraception and birth control – net loss of Catholic voters. It was reported yesterday that the president has launched an ad campaign aimed at blacks. When the country’s first black president has to shore up his African-American base, you know he’s in trouble. Pollster John Zogby, speaking to the League of Women Voters, says he has evidence that young voters may be disillusioned and stay home in November as well. And finally, ultra-liberal Americans at the Netroots Nation convention have said they’re disappointed in Obama’s not-quite-liberal-enough agenda, so they’re going to sit it out as well.
So Jews, Catholics, blacks, young people, and just straight up hardcore liberals all appear to be much less enthusiastic about Barack Obama than they were in 2012. Put that together with the conservatives and independents who won’t support the president, and it becomes pretty clear that you have a candidate who is at serious risk of being beaten by a Ham Sandwich.
Watching The Coalition Crumble . . .