Ultra-liberal Daily Beast columnist Michael Tomasky is under the impression that President Obama will win re-election by 4-5 points in November – a notion on which he’s sadly mistaken, of course – but despite his seeming confidence in the outcome, he’s nervous about a few details.  In today’s Ham Sandwich Segment, we’ll let Tomasky lay out the blueprint, and drill down into the detail to show why he’s not quite nervous enough.

Tomasky’s thesis is that the Obama campaign is too cocky and overconfident.  He’s right.  He spells out several examples.  First – the campaign thinks Arizona is a swing state, and that by registering more voters here, they can put it into play.  Say it with me: Never.  Gonna.  Happen.  For lack of a less indelicate way of putting it, the Democrats won’t be able to register enough illegals to overcome the state’s right-leaning demographic, particularly supercharged Mormons who really want Romney elected. Tomasky points out that the Obama campaign needs to focus on states that he carried in 2008 but are vastly less likely in 2012: Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Tomasky goes on to completely understate Obama’s weak fundraising, the bad economy, and unemployment.  Then he points out the possibility that Romney will run an effective, competent campaign, and might even make a surprising and daring vice presidential pick – not, as he says “Sarah Palin surprising and daring, but actually surprising and daring”.  [emphasis mine]  Tomasky’s whistling past the graveyard if he thinks this is just a possibility.  I guarantee Romney will get it exactly right.  Obama’s going to lose some swing and purple states, he will never recover in fundraising, and the economy, unemployment, (and gas prices) will not cooperate with him.  Couple those factors with a well-funded, highly organized and enthusiastic Romney campaign and an inspired vice president pick, and it becomes abundantly clear why President Obama is at grave risk of being beaten by a Ham Sandwich.

Gonna Be Worse Than You Think, Dems . . .

The JunkMan